Project Overview

Project is organized in specific workpackages

Development and validation

Development and validation of a decision-support system prototype to inform a personalised risk based screening strategy.

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Development and validation

Development and validation of a decision-support system prototype to inform a personalised risk based screening strategy.

We will create an algorithm based on cervical cancer screening history data and age affixed with data on lifestyle (smoking, alcohol), comprehensive information on HPV-types, and extended to include information on HPV vaccination based on data from Norway. Using Norwegian population-based data on 1.7 million women and about 10 million test results, we will construct an analytical platform for development of prototype predictive algorithms that predict an individual’s probability of being in the disease states of “normal”, “low-grade”, “high-grade” and “cancer” at any point in time through development of a machine learning algorithm. These algorithms will allow the delivery of personally-tailored actions safely, efficiently and quickly and allow for the development of optimally personalised preventive healthcare.

Training

Training the predicting algorithm model and modelling of the cost effectiveness of their implementation.

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Training

Training the predicting algorithm model and modelling of the cost effectiveness of their implementation.

We will compile and organise secondary data from Estonia and Latvia and conduct original data collection by utilising random sampling of screening age women for risk/behavioural data. Finally, we harmonise and curate data collected from Baltic countries for transfer learning and model training. We will methodically evaluate and validate the different experiences and develop an evaluation metric for the performance of the predictive algorithm.

Evaluate

Evaluate the impact and cost-effectiveness of scaling-up a personalised cervical cancer screening approach for achieving the virtual elimination of cervical cancer in each setting.

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Evaluate

Evaluate the impact and cost-effectiveness of scaling-up a personalised cervical cancer screening approach for achieving the virtual elimination of cervical cancer in each setting.

We will undertake a demonstration cost-effectiveness analysis to quantify the value of new personalised interventions for the societies of Baltic countries. We will formalise efforts to define the optimal risk-based thresholds calculated to quantify the health and economic trade-offs associated with alternative personalised interventions. We will integrate the individual risk-based projections with an established HPV and cervical cancer simulation model. The model will be adapted to reflect Estonian and Latvian epidemiologic and economic data. In addition, for each strategy under consideration we will calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio defined as the additional cost divided by the additional health benefit associated with one strategy compared with the next least costly strategy. Findings from this demonstration analysis can be extended to inform the societal value of personalised screening approaches in other Eastern European countries.

Developing screening strategy

Developing (and promoting) a personalised, risk-based screening strategy and preparation for the implementation of the strategy in the participating countries.

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Developing screening strategy

Developing (and promoting) a personalised, risk-based screening strategy and preparation for the implementation of the strategy in the participating countries.

We will develop a web-based interface/App for personalised risk prediction. This tailored (for the user group) tool will assist clinicians and women (the screening target group members) to determine the status of their prognostic risk group. Qualitative data collection. Semi-structured interviews with stakeholders including (1) policy makers; (2) screening-programme officials and health care providers; and, (3) screening target group members to inquire about barriers, perceived benefits and feasibility for population-based implementation of the proposed screening strategy.

Dissemination

Dissemination, communication, exploitation and capacity building.

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Dissemination

Dissemination, communication, exploitation and capacity building.

We expect to proceed with further research, to disseminate our experience to other countries and to provide a step for future collaborative research projects on EU and regional level.